It was essential for Iraq to stop the ISIS terrorists from making further gains on the ground until the Iraqi Armed Forces recovered from the initial defeat and a US-led international alliance started its operations in August , with the US providing crucial air support.
Several of these groups are very close to Iran and others, such as the Badr organization, have been in existence since the Iran-Iraq war. All parties tolerated this security fact until the territorial defeat of ISIS.
Since then, many voices inside and outside Iraq are calling for these militant groups to dissolve or to merge under the Iraqi Armed Forces. The last few years have proven that this proposal is easier said than done. Much of this exchange is Iranian exports to Iraqi markets. Despite US sanctions, Iran exports much-needed fuel for Iraqi electricity generation and, in peak times, Iranian electricity is also exported with US government-approved waivers.
This move will also benefit Iraqis who visit Iran for recreation, religious pilgrimage, and healthcare. More than four decades after the beginning of a dreadful war that shaped the lives and worldview of a generation, Iraq and Iran seem to have put the past behind them and moved to a new relationship.
But the road ahead is not without landmines. The Iranians may be enjoying their triumphant short-term position, but the long-term consequences could be calamitous. He deployed Shiite symbolism throughout the war effort, claiming to be a descendant of Imam Ali and the Prophet Muhammad. Indeed, Saddam cunningly became more Shiite as war with Iran continued. In other words, it has taken some time, failure, and painful lessons for Iran to command the proxy network that it does today.
Since its creation in , Hezbollah has achieved a supra-state status in Lebanon, superseding state institutions. Hezbollah has itself established affiliates across the region in the years since, with reverberations across conflict theaters.
Hezbollah has outgrown its sponsor in this respect. The organization developed its abilities on the battlefield, its capacity to recruit willing fighters, and its ability to subvert state institutions during the war with Iraq. Hezbollah and the Badr Brigade would not be what they are today were it not for the painful experiences, lessons, and losses of the Iran-Iraq war.
More broadly, the war helped solidify the foundational myth of the Islamic Republic. Incidents like the mistaken U. The emergence of a Shiite theocracy in Iran and the subsequent eight-year war created regional peace and security contours that shape contestations in the region today. Iranian proxies and Shiite Islamist groups were thus among the early adopters of suicide bombs, which since became a standard tool of warfare by jihadi movements.
Thus, Iran took the war to the Gulf Arab states, calling on their Shiite populations to rise up against their governments. That tracks with his own inclinations to keep the US out of foreign wars, particularly in the Middle East. But the options facing the president at that point will be extremely problematic, experts say.
The riskiest one — by far — would be to invade Iran. The logistics alone boggle the mind, and any attempt to try it would be seen from miles away. Iran has nearly three times the amount of people Iraq did in , when the war began, and is about three and a half times as big. The geography is also treacherous.
It has small mountain ranges along some of its borders. Entering from the Afghanistan side in the east would mean traversing two deserts. Trying to get in from the west could also prove difficult even with Turkey — a NATO ally — as a bordering nation. By contrast, America never had more than , service members in Iraq. A US-Iran war would likely lead to thousands or hundreds of thousands of dead. Goldenberg, who traveled recently to meet with officials in the Gulf, said that none of them wanted a US-Iran war.
European nations will also worry greatly about millions of refugees streaming into the continent, which would put immense pressure on governments already dealing with the fallout of the Syrian refugee crisis.
Israel also would worry about Iranian proxies targeting it more on that below. China depends heavily on its goods traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, so it would probably call for calm and for Tehran not to close down the waterway. Russia would likely demand restraint as well, but use the opportunity to solidify its ties with the Islamic Republic. And since both countries have veto power on the UN Security Council, they could ruin any political legitimacy for the war that the US may aim to gain through that body.
The hope for the Trump administration would therefore be that the conflict ends soon after the opening salvos begin. Retired Marine Lt. Vincent Stewart left his post as the No. Toward the end of it, he spent his time at the forefront of the military intelligence and cybersecurity communities.
But it can spread chaos in the Middle East and around the world, hoping that a war-weary US public, an intervention-skeptical president, and an angered international community cause America to stand down. That may seem like a huge task — and it is — but experts believe the Islamic Republic has the capability, knowhow, and will to pull off such an ambitious campaign. Take what it could do in the Middle East. US troops in Syria are poorly defended and have little support, making them easy targets, experts say.
America also has thousands of civilians, troops, and contractors in Iraq, many of whom work in areas near where Iranian militias operate within the country. US allies would also be prime targets. We will have to utilize multiple instruments and approaches to contend with a newly ascendant Iran — containment, active deterrence, and even accommodation and engagement. Related Books. A Glass Half Full? Blind Spot By Khaled Elgindy. Kings and Presidents By Bruce Riedel. Post was not sent - check your email addresses!
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